here is dick morris staggering even sean hannity on fox news this week. >> as he's at the moment in a very strong position. i believe if the election were held today, romney would win by four or five points. i believe he would carry florida, ohio, virginia. i believe he would carry nevada. i believe he would carry pennsylvania. >> oh, come on. >> pennsylvania, and i believe he would be competitive in michigan. people need to understand that the polling this year is the worst it's ever been because this is the first election where if i tell you who is going to vote, i can tell you how they're going to vote. the models these folks are using are crazy. they assume a democratic edge of six or seven points. >> we're all wrong in this business, we make mistakes. he's the only guy i know who knows he's wrong when he says this stuff, dick morris. in the eyes of republicans, it's that the polls are conspiring to bring him down. michael tomasky, special correspondent for "newsweek," and ron reagan is an msnbc political analyst and author of "my father at 100." ron, you have to start with you. y